“Hi David, when are interest rates going up?”   John, I appreciate the question and if I knew for certain, I would tell you.  As the proverbial saying goes, if I had a nickel for every time someone asked me this question, I would be…well…less frustrated.

Truth is, I am often frustrated when I receive this question because I truly wish I had a better answer.  My clients are also my friends so they accept the notion that I do not have a crystal ball, however, some of my clients are pilots and I certainly expect them to perform at 100% regardless of changing conditions.

As luck would have it, I believe the current market conditions allow me to make an interesting prediction to the fate of our future mortgage rates.  Hang on, here it goes!

I believe rates will improve (go down) as we near the November 2016 election.  Why do I believe this? Because in the last eight Presidential elections (1984 – 2012), mortgage rates trended down 7 out of 8 times from August through December.  The only exception being in 1992 with a minuscule up
trend.  Unfortunately, I could not find any Genius Harvard Economist to support my claims, so for now my prediction is merely a hypothesis to be proven.

What I do know is, as I write this memo we are merely .09% away from the lowest mortgage rates in history, which was found on 11/26/2012.

In summary, I highly recommend you consider buying if you rent and refinancing if you have not done so in the recent past.  As always, please call me with questions, and please tell your friends and family about my interesting analysis.